Which technical form of trading do you think has the highest accuracy?
In trading, technical patterns are primarily divided into two categories: continuation patterns and reversal patterns.
Continuation patterns occur in the middle of a trend, after a wave of increase or decrease. The market consolidates through the continuation pattern and then continues the previous trend.
Reversal patterns occur at turning points in the market, after a wave of increase or decrease. The market consolidates through the reversal pattern and then reverses the trend.
Let's first discuss the issue of pattern accuracy.
Essentially, every trader wants to find technical patterns with higher accuracy rates. However, after conducting extensive backtesting, I've found that the success rates of various patterns do not differ significantly. Even if the success rate of a certain pattern is slightly higher, it does not confer a particularly significant advantage. Moreover, patterns with high success rates are often more complex, occur less frequently, and trading them particularly tests patience. The difficulty in operating them is not small.
Advertisement
I believe that, compared to searching for patterns with high accuracy rates, it is better to identify the patterns you are most proficient in and can use effectively. This way, you will have a better grasp of the characteristics and trends of the patterns, delve deeper into their study, and be more capable of understanding the potential market changes after the formation of the pattern. This will strengthen your confidence in trading. Thoroughly understanding a pattern is extremely valuable for trading.
Bruce Lee once said, "I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks, but I fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times."
So, as long as we study a pattern thoroughly and deeply, we can dominate all markets.
Next, I will share two patterns that I believe have relatively high accuracy rates and are relatively easy to execute.
Pattern 1: The reversal pattern after a rapid decline, with a second test of the low.After a rapid and significant decline, the market stabilizes, and after the force is released, the market will rebound. After the rebound, the market will test the lows again, which is the reactivation of the bearish force. If the reactivation does not create a new low, it implies an expectation of a trend reversal. Trading this expectation involves entering at the end of the second test of the lows.
The chart illustrates the contract of Soybean No. 1 for July 2023. At the hourly chart level, the market has experienced a continuous and significant decline, with minimal rebounds during the downtrend. After the bearish force is fully released, the market begins to stabilize and rebound upward, surpassing the 38.2% level and reaching the 50% mark. After the rebound ends and the market tests the lows again, an entry is made at the end of the second test when a reversal candlestick pattern forms, and then the market begins to reverse and move upward.
Notes:
(1) The rebound from the test of the lows needs to reach a certain spatial proportion to trade, at least above 23.6% of the downtrend wave. Conservative traders may wait for the rebound to reach 38.2% before trading.
(2) The magnitude of the market decline is significant, and the force has been fully released, which increases the probability of a reversal.
The bullish reversal pattern is the mirror image of the bearish one, which is not detailed here.
Pattern 2: Continuation pattern following an expanding triangle.
An expanding triangle is a rather unique structure, within which there will be consecutive false breakouts, making it the pattern with the most washouts. Traders will experience consecutive stop losses, and their trading mentality will also be impacted, making it quite challenging to trade.
However, if one purposefully chooses to trade in the direction following consecutive false breakouts in an expanding triangle, it is possible to avoid consecutive stop losses, maintain a good mentality, and potentially achieve better returns.
The chart illustrates the continuation pattern following an expanding triangle, which is a 15-minute candlestick of the Industrial Silicon contract for August 2023. After the first wave of decline, the market underwent a complex expansion and consolidation, with consecutive new highs on the upside and consecutive new lows on the downside, forming an expanding, trumpet-like shape. Eventually, the market broke downward and plummeted rapidly.The frequency of occurrence of such patterns is not high, so patience is required when trading to wait for opportunities.
Both of the above patterns can be applied to different time frame candlestick charts, but I still recommend using a fixed time frame for trading and not frequently changing the time frame. Additionally, no matter which pattern is chosen, it is essential to conduct extensive backtesting or simulation testing before engaging in actual trading. Only after fully understanding the characteristics and variations of the pattern should you proceed to real trading.
Comment