Can you make stable profits by only one trick in trading?
The answer is yes. The traders I have seen who can make a profit, including myself, do not have any fancy tricks. They all have their own unique method to capture the profits that belong to them in the market, without being arrogant or rash, and without being greedy or covetous.
I myself achieve profitability through a trading system, focusing only on a few types of products and a specific category of market conditions. The trading system has its fixed criteria, including methods for confirming trends, entry points, stop-loss and profit-taking levels, and a capital management plan. The standards are clear and consistent. The purpose of the trading system is to capture a certain fixed pattern in the market, that is, a certain type of market condition, while maintaining a certain success rate and a reasonable profit-to-loss ratio, which can lead to profitability.
Different people use different trading criteria. Some use the N-shaped structure, some use the rectangular consolidation structure, and some use the top and bottom consolidation structure. Each structure can serve as a standard to capture market conditions, which is what we refer to as "one move" in trading.
So, how should this "one move" be refined to be effective? I will use the rectangular consolidation as an example to illustrate.
Step one: Focusing on the rectangular consolidation, confirm the direction and standards for entry and exit.
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Rectangular consolidation is usually a continuation pattern and occasionally appears at tops and bottoms.
According to the technical criteria of rectangular consolidation:
(1) After a one-way market condition ends, the market enters a consolidation structure.
(2) The consolidation structure forms regular high and low points. Connecting the different high points of the pattern can form a horizontal resistance line. Connecting the different low points can form a horizontal support line. The two lines are essentially horizontal, creating the shape of a rectangle.
(3) Additionally, we require the time period of the rectangular consolidation to reach 40 candlestick lines because a longer consolidation period means the market accumulates more energy. A significant and rapid price movement after breaking out is a better trading opportunity.(4) Once the pattern is established, enter the market after the price breaks through the upper and lower pressures of the consolidation pattern, set the stop loss at the high or low point in the opposite direction of the break, and set the profit target at a 3:1 ratio.
Illustration of a rectangular consolidation pattern.
(1) The market starts from the bottom, forms a bullish trend, and then enters a range consolidation.
(2) The range consolidation pattern forms horizontal support and resistance lines, structuring the pattern into a rectangle.
(3) The number of consolidation candlesticks reaches 40, and enter at the point where the rectangular consolidation breaks upward.
(4) Set the stop loss and take profit.
Step two: Conduct extensive backtesting to resolve operational details.
With the standards in place, the next consideration is whether this standard can make money, how much money it can make, what the process of making money is like, how easy it is to execute, how many times to trade per month, how long to hold positions, how many varieties should be traded, what position size to use, etc.
Additionally, during the backtesting process, we can test whether the current standard is the best one and if there are better options. For example, the standard mentioned above is to set the stop loss at the high or low point in the opposite direction of the rectangular consolidation break. What if we change it to set the stop loss at the starting point of the candlestick that broke through? Would this operation result in a smaller stop loss, a higher risk-reward ratio, and what changes would there be in the success rate? Would the overall profitability increase?
Through extensive backtesting comparisons, we can derive a lot of trading data and test different standards to optimize our trading strategy.Including many other details in the trading system, such as the issue of false breakouts, the problem of consecutive errors during the decay period, and so on, can all be solved by reviewing the trades.
In the process of reviewing, we will gain a deeper and more comprehensive understanding of the rectangle consolidation pattern, and we will have strategies to deal with potential trading issues that may arise from rectangle consolidation. Then, the "move" of rectangle consolidation will become your weapon, leading you to forge ahead and capture profits in the trading market.
What I mentioned above is actually the process of establishing a trading system. Trading systems have a fixed framework, whether it's rectangle consolidation, triangle consolidation, top and bottom consolidation, or trends and oscillations, a prototype of a trading system can be built according to this framework. Then, through reviewing trades or using a simulated account, gradually refine the details and optimize it into a suitable, executable, and profitable trading system, which will become your unique skill.
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